Ok. I hear
you. Let us call it a slowdown. A milder and more agreeable term for the
current state of affairs. Business is slowing down, liquidity is tight, credit
is not easily available, and risk appetite is low. In a nutshell, a widespread
state of confusion. If some intervention is not taken externally then we may
actually slip into a Recession. I hate to use the ‘R’ word because it evokes
negative feelings in everyone.
I am not an
expert or professional economist, in that I don’t practice making predictions
on economy based on data. And it is also not my intent to predict any such
dreaded phase.
Of late, I
have met many people who are comparing the current situation to a pre- 2008
scenario. Clearly, we have not forgotten 2008-09 crisis. It is fresh in our
minds. At least, an average person in the job market has not forgotten it. The
jury is still out if those who run the financial system had learnt any lesson
from last time.
It is my
sole aim to share my ideas on how one can plan and prepare (which means take
some actions and not just think) if such an event were to recur.
Recession
is defined usually as a period of temporary economic decline during which trade
and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in
two successive quarters. It is accompanied by a fall in confidence among
capitalists, industrialists and consumers, whether to spend or to invest
heavily for future.
Gradually,
the energy of growth and positive sentiment from previous few years, starts to
“Recede”. Sometimes there are landmark events that accentuate an already
fundamentally weak economic condition or there is just a gradual downturn due
to over production. In many ways, it is a natural method of course correction.
Slowdown or
downturn should be seen as a ‘Recess’ between two periods. A time to pause and
reflect. Time to reflect upon what is truly important to you in life. Most of
us are just busy in the rat race of acquiring lot of material wealth, and
mostly it is at the cost of our relationships, health and losing sight of our
real goal in life.
Let us see what we can all do to plan ahead and
mentally prepare. Some of the ideas shared below may be useful.
Acceptance:
Let us
accept this. It is a reality. Business cycles have to go through periods of
highs and lows. It is inherent to humans to think that good times can last
forever. Nothing lasts forever (perhaps diamonds do… but the diamond merchants
are hit by recession first and hard). Sooner we accept that a slowdown is
imminent, our inbuilt defence mechanism gets active. It is our survival
instinct. Something, human race has learnt from thousands of years. It is in
our DNA. Your inner voice will guide you on what is the right thing to do for
you. There is no better guide than your own inner voice. If you simply look to
others for advice, it will be second hand. They can never know your complete situation.
Your strengths, your weaknesses, your financial state, your fears, your
liabilities and many other aspects. Use your ‘Inner voice’ to guide you. Now
the question arises as to How to hear the inner voice. It is a path on its own.
For Starters, Let us say the fastest way to hear your inner voice is “Solitude”. Spend time alone in an
unfamiliar place or just lock yourself in a hotel room without books and TV.
Just look out of the window. Be quiet. You will get an insight.
Help Others
The surest
way to help yourself come out of a negative frame of mind is by lifting someone
else’s spirits. You will be surprised how by making someone else happy, you
will also be benefited instantly. Let me share a small example I read recently.
We have all heard that sunflowers turn their faces towards the sun. They follow
the sun from East to West. In short, they get their dose of Happiness or energy
from the Sun.
However,
something that you may not have heard is what happens to the flowers when it is
overcast and there is no Sunlight available during the day. Take a guess. No.
let me share with you, they look at each other. They
feed from each other’s positivity. There is a lesson in it for all of us.
Two to Tango
Make
Partnerships with your colleagues and co-workers. Share the business results
and success together. It is very important that we find our best friend at
work. When you stand shoulder to shoulder with another, you are likely to help
each other. Collaboration is your best option always.
Cut the flab
If times of
slowdown and downturn wish to teach us one thing, it is to cut the flab.
Eliminate all expenses that you can do without. Especially if it is an
ostentatious one, undertaken to impress others. Those we wish to impress are
always people that we do not like in the first place. Why waste one’s money and
resources and mind-share for such people. Practice some minimalistic living. As
an experiment, you may do it now for a month. You will be amazed with your own
results. Care: Do it to yourself first before forcing it down on your loved
ones.
Cutting the
flab should also be taken literally. Take a look at yourself in the mirror. If
those shapes around the belly are not what you intended, it is perhaps a good
time to work on your health as well. Exercise will invariably keep your spirits
high and keep you positive throughout the day. Only in a positive and alert
mind, do great ideas come. Look for cheaper ways to lose flab online, I am not
suggesting that you take most expensive Gym membership immediately.
Declutter
Japanese
people have this custom of OSOJI. They declutter their wardrobes and closets every
year to see what they do not need. It has multiple benefits. One, you realise
your wasteful expenditure pattern. Two, you could generate good karma by
donating items of use to the needy and destitute. Three, the more decluttered
your physical space is, the more your mind will be decluttered as well.
Re-imagine your
Business
Times were
good and sales were increasing. We could do nothing wrong. But hey, winter is
coming. It is time to reimagine your approach and business model again. May be
consumer tastes are changing or they need a new alternative as well. Everyone
will be impacted by a downturn and most people will find it difficult to stay
happy.
Especially
a mind that looks for happiness externally, wants to try new things. Because
the old ways are too boring. Time for a new launch! Crazy as it may sound, but
you have to put your customer in the centre again. You may have lost touch with
him/her. Go back to basics. Work on the product again, not just the packaging.
Increase service standards. It is imperative to retain customer loyalty. People
flip immediately during recessionary times and customer attrition is usually
high.
Reimagine yourself
The old you
is also boring. If you want to live this life to the fullest, then live many
lives in one. Change or transform yourself every 10 years. Following are some
of the ideas, you may choose from below or make your own list. I am only going
to influence your thought process:
Pick
up a hobby: Something you have delayed for many years. It
may be learning a musical instrument, or preparing to run marathons or
trekking. You will have to make time for it. Cut down on weekend partying or
incessant binge on Netflix and social media.
Inculcate
a good habit: Yes, I may sound like a school teacher. But we
are all taking it too easy. All Good habits have to be inculcated and worked
upon. Bad habits are like weed that grows without any effort or nurturing. It
is only when you are growing that fine grass in your lawn that you realise it
needs some nurturing and care. You may resolve that you will not hurl abuses at
any rowdy driver on the roads, or that you will rise early every day or that
you will eat your lunch in 30 minutes very slowly and mindfully. Basically,
whatever it is that your spouse has been telling you for many years now. Pick
up one and surprise her. Yes, this tip is for Men J
It has been
a rather long post. But I hope I succeeded in poking you to think and reflect.
Recession is at the end of the day a State of mind. It needs to get out of your
head first. It takes one guy sometimes to break the chain. Let that person be
you. Share this post with others those who may have suffered or are yet to
suffer it for the first time. Business cycles are increasingly becoming shorter
and shorter. Wonder why? Because history repeats itself for the Unaware. We are
not learning lessons and becoming more and more impatient. For another time!
Love and
Peace,
Nitin
Disclaimer: The
author works as a financial advisor in India. The views expressed here are
completely his own and are a collective wisdom of numerous humans that
co-exist or existed before the author. The author claims no right of
originality of ideas but would like to assert the right to his style of
writing. There is no intent to hurt anyone's sentiments with his opinions. It
is just an honest expression by the author to help anyone who may be benefited
from his writings. And a medium to express his gratitude to all who contributed
to bless the author with wisdom.
